Smart People Say "I Don't Know"

READING TIME: 2 MINUTES

The smartest people, the true experts, say "I don't know." They don't try to sound smart. If someone knows a subject well, she knows the edge of what she doesn't know, and is okay with the limits of the unknown. Take it from Warren Buffet and have a "too hard pile." 

Or as Lao-Tzu said in the Tao Te Ching:

Those who know don't talk.
Those who talk don't know.

The ones who roar with the confidence of a fire engine have something to prove. Hold them accountable for accuracy. 

Philip Tetlock explores this in his book Superforecasting. He finds that some people truly are good at predicting the future. But they generally aren't the ones blaring with confidence. In fact, these are the qualities that Superforecasters exhibit:

Cautious
Humble
Nondeterministic (ie. what happens is not meant to be and does not have to happen)
Actively open-minded
Intelligent with a "need for cognition"
Reflective
Numerate (they like numbers)
Pragmatic
Analytical
"Dragonfly-eyed" (value diverse views)
Probabilistic (make predictions based on grades of maybe)
Thoughtful updaters (when facts change, they change their minds)
Good intuitive psychologists (aware of their cognitive and emotional biases)
Growth mindset (believe it's possible to get better)
Grit

They understand that the world is complex and constantly changing. So the next time you see someone confidently making bold predictions, ask yourself "Does he exhibit these qualities? What if in six months, one year, three years, we planned to come back to this moment and hold him accountable — would he still have so much confidence?"