Smart People Say "I Don't Know"

READING TIME: 2 MINUTES

The smartest people, the true experts, say "I don't know." They don't try to sound smart. If someone knows a subject well, she knows the edge of what she doesn't know, and is okay with the limits of the unknown. Take it from Warren Buffet and have a "too hard pile." 

Or as Lao-Tzu said in the Tao Te Ching:

Those who know don't talk.
Those who talk don't know.

The ones who roar with the confidence of a fire engine have something to prove. Hold them accountable for accuracy. 

Philip Tetlock explores this in his book Superforecasting. He finds that some people truly are good at predicting the future. But they generally aren't the ones blaring with confidence. In fact, these are the qualities that Superforecasters exhibit:

Cautious
Humble
Nondeterministic (ie. what happens is not meant to be and does not have to happen)
Actively open-minded
Intelligent with a "need for cognition"
Reflective
Numerate (they like numbers)
Pragmatic
Analytical
"Dragonfly-eyed" (value diverse views)
Probabilistic (make predictions based on grades of maybe)
Thoughtful updaters (when facts change, they change their minds)
Good intuitive psychologists (aware of their cognitive and emotional biases)
Growth mindset (believe it's possible to get better)
Grit

They understand that the world is complex and constantly changing. So the next time you see someone confidently making bold predictions, ask yourself "Does he exhibit these qualities? What if in six months, one year, three years, we planned to come back to this moment and hold him accountable — would he still have so much confidence?"

If You Trust Them, Let Them Fail

READING TIME: 1 MINUTE

If you trust them, let them fail.

If you trust someone enough to do a job, let him fail. The hope of course, is that he will succeed. But he will have to find a way to succeed on his own, through his own process.

After all, if you didn't trust him, then he shouldn't have the job in the first place. 

Hope is not a strategy for success, and it shouldn't replace trust. In other words, you can hope someone succeeds if you trust him. But you can't simply hope someone succeeds.

The other side of this coin is that if you don't trust someone, don't give him the opportunity to fail. Because it will affect you. If he fails, and you gave him the opportunity, you fail.

Systemic Problems

READING TIME: 2 MINUTES

Sometimes there are systemic problems in an organization. Don't let sunk costs fool you into thinking it can get better or that you can fix it. 

At the very least, don't think that fixing the problems will be easy. Understand it may take way, way, more work.

Also understand that you may not be able to fix it at all. Don't get upset when your effort is stopped in it's tracks. 

Thinking you can fix it.

Is a flawed thought.

Thinking that if you can just hold on a little bit longer it will get better.

Flawed.

Some organizations are systemically bad. Broken underneath, or operating against your logic or ethics. If you hold on a little bit longer thinking it’s about to get better, it will change. And it will continue to change in ways you won't see coming. And not for the better. There’s a reason it’s bad today. Six months or two years ago, it was just about to get better. 

"What about perseverance though? Aren't you supposed to show grit, stick it out, push through?"

You have to find the balance.

If your principles are breached. Let it go. If the organization or person acts against your ethics or reasoning that is a breach.

Perseverance makes sense if there's light at the end of the tunnel. And if getting there doesn't compromise your principles. It doesn't mean do anything at any cost.

Don't get caught up in emotions. Understand that the problem won't get better. You won't be a hero. Six months or two years from now it will be on the verge of getting better, about to turn a corner.