03 December 2019
The Difference Between Simple and Easy
There's a difference between simple and easy.
A shortcut on your daily commute can be easy. Take this way instead and it will get you there faster. Maybe it's a new road. The next day there will be two or three cars doing it, then ten, then a hundred. After a while it's no longer a shortcut.
But what if the shortcut were a tightrope strung over a pit of alligators? It would be be simple but not easy. "All you have to do is walk over this twenty-foot rope." But not many people would want to risk their lives to save twenty minutes going to work.
There are at least three ways that simple is different than easy: skill, practice, and luck.
Maybe someone has a knack for walking on tightropes. Or maybe she developed that skill from years and years of perseverance and practice. Or maybe she is just lucky. The point being, it takes something else to walk a tight-rope strung over alligators. Not everyone can do it.
Easy is something anyone can do without skill, practice, or luck. Simple takes more.
04 October 2019
Numbers Are the Mother of Safety
"Arithmetic is the first of the sciences and the mother of safety." ¹An airplane flies because of two forces: thrust and lift.
The engines provide thrust which moves the plane forward.
The wings provide lift which moves the plane up. The wings are shaped in such a way that, as the plane moves forward, air moves faster over the top of the wing than it does below. This causes the air pressure on top of the wing to be less than underneath. The difference in pressure causes the wings to lift off the ground.
That's physics.
Either you have enough thrust and lift or the plane falls back to earth. It's as simple as that, it's numbers. The numbers provide the safety.
Once the plane is in the air there is an art to flying. Pilots can develop the je ne sais quoi to a smooth flight, averting danger, or even somersault tricks. But the plane must stay in the air, then there is an art. The finesse and nuance come after.
There is a saying that goes "there are old pilots and bold pilots, but there are no old, bold, pilots."
Old pilots never forget the relentless rules of humble arithmetic. A pilot can bend the rules and create dazzling maneuvers. He can also ignore the rules, but the rules are still there and he can't ignore them forever. It only takes one mistake to blow up. Therefore, an old pilot has learned that there is a balance to being bold.
NOTES:
¹ A quote that seems to originate from the French novelist Victor Cherbuliez, used by US Supreme Court justice Louis Brandeis, and Vanguard Group founder Jack Bogle.
07 September 2019
Seoul
I asked our interpreter why there were so many coffee shops in Seoul. There were twelve within two blocks or our hotel, I counted. She said it's because the Korean people are always working so hard. Indeed. Seoul is a vibrant city.
But first off, you don't need an interpreter to scratch the surface of Seoul if you speak English. You can cash in the currency of language like in so many other places in the world. That's one measure of wealth I never considered until recently. Speaking English is like having a stack of bills you can exchange for goods and services. You need real money too of course, but without the language you can't initiate the conversation. Imagine if someone who only spoke Korean flew into a US city and tried to get around. What are the odds that person could walk into a coffee shop and order a cup of coffee only speaking Korean? Not likely.
It was 96 degrees by 10am and when I got to the top of Namsan Park to snap a photo, I was drenched in sweat. But considering it was the first photo I had taken in nine months it was probably worth it. Besides, I woke up at 3am from the jet lag. I would have gone earlier but the subway didn't run until 5:19am. When I did go down at 5:15am, the train was there waiting. Doors open. Air-conditioned. Bright fluorescent light. There was a family of three folded on top of each other. Sleeping. There were a few others. Men in suits. Going to work. Everyone going somewhere to be productive. The Korean stock market is down 26% the past year. Tariffs, slowing exports to China. But don't tell that to these people. It takes years for that stuff to sink in.
That night we played a show. It was a black-box club. The green room was dark and only had two power outlets, the bathroom didn't have toilet paper. The backline was dank. We had trouble with the audio and it was stressful, but the local crew stayed respectful. The crowd was silent before the show. You could hear whispers. But it was mania when they hit. Like the Beatles. The crowd was mostly teenage girls and they screamed, and sang, and jumped in unison. It was incredible. The next day the band trended on social media. It created a moment, and the promoter said that was important. He said trends catch on like wildfire in Korea.
The next day we were supposed to fly to Osaka for a festival but a typhoon canceled the flight. It canceled all the flights. And all the flights the following day were sold out. It was a holiday weekend in Korea so there were lots of travelers. I got a call from the Japanese promoter. It looked like we were going to miss the show. I had to act fast. It was a typhoon after all. I called the emergency line of our travel agency and scurried options. I was on on the phone with the travel agent while texting the Japanese and Korean promoters. I looked at Google maps and the NOAA weather site. "What about this? What about that?" There were no direct flights to Osaka. The band was texting, asking what time we were leaving the hotel. Asking if I knew that the flight was cancelled. There was a flight the next day but it had a connection, and was on a budget airline. I sensed it would be tough and we'd have issues traveling with the gear. I suggested we fly to Tokyo today instead and take the bullet train down to Osaka. The Japanese promoter didn't like it. He wanted us to take the other flight. We had to make a decision. The Korean promoter said we needed to check out of the hotel because it was after noon and the hotel was strict and it was rude. I thought the Tokyo flight was best, I pushed. Japanese promoter said ok. There were eight of us. The travel agent booked the flights. We headed straight to the airport. Everything worked out and there were no problems. It looked easy.
After Osaka, we went back to Tokyo for a show. I had ramen five times in three days.
Then we flew to Auburn, Alabama and it was a very strange juxtaposition of culture pronounced by jet lag.
That was a microcosm of the past year. There were many more strange days, strange moments. No reflection, just moving.
30 August 2019
Smart People Say "I Don't Know"
Those who know don't talk.The ones who roar with the confidence of a fire engine have something to prove. Hold them accountable for accuracy.
Those who talk don't know.
Philip Tetlock explores this in his book Superforecasting. He finds that some people truly are good at predicting the future. But they generally aren't the ones blaring with confidence. In fact, these are the qualities that Superforecasters exhibit:
Cautious
Humble
Nondeterministic (ie. what happens is not meant to be and does not have to happen)
Actively open-minded
Intelligent with a "need for cognition"
Reflective
Numerate (they like numbers)
Pragmatic
Analytical
"Dragonfly-eyed" (value diverse views)
Probabilistic (make predictions based on grades of maybe)
Thoughtful updaters (when facts change, they change their minds)
Good intuitive psychologists (aware of their cognitive and emotional biases)
Growth mindset (believe it's possible to get better)
Grit
They understand that the world is complex and constantly changing. So the next time you see someone confidently making bold predictions, ask yourself "Does he exhibit these qualities? What if in six months, one year, three years, we planned to come back to this moment and hold him accountable — would he still have so much confidence?"
29 August 2019
If You Trust Them, Let Them Fail
If you trust them, let them fail.
After all, if you didn't trust him, then he shouldn't have the job in the first place.
Hope is not a strategy for success, and it shouldn't replace trust. In other words, you can hope someone succeeds if you trust him. But you can't simply hope someone succeeds.
The other side of this coin is that if you don't trust someone, don't give him the opportunity to fail. Because it will affect you. If he fails, and you gave him the opportunity, you fail.
28 August 2019
Systemic Problems
At the very least, don't think that fixing the problems will be easy. Understand it may take way, way, more work.
Also understand that you may not be able to fix it at all. Don't get upset when your effort is stopped in it's tracks.
Thinking you can fix it.
Is a flawed thought.
Thinking that if you can just hold on a little bit longer it will get better.
Flawed.
Some organizations are systemically bad. Broken underneath, or operating against your logic or ethics. If you hold on a little bit longer thinking it’s about to get better, it will change. And it will continue to change in ways you won't see coming. And not for the better. There’s a reason it’s bad today. Six months or two years ago, it was just about to get better.
"What about perseverance though? Aren't you supposed to show grit, stick it out, push through?"
If your principles are breached. Let it go. If the organization or person acts against your ethics or reasoning that is a breach.
Perseverance makes sense if there's light at the end of the tunnel. And if getting there doesn't compromise your principles. It doesn't mean do anything at any cost.
Don't get caught up in emotions. Understand that the problem won't get better. You won't be a hero. Six months or two years from now it will be on the verge of getting better, about to turn a corner.
02 May 2019
Appetite For The Game
In sports, you hear pundits talk about a player's "appetite for the game". Some players go for the goal or tackle at a breakneck pace, as if his life depended on it. 'Selfish' is an apt description because when a true goal scorer gets a chance to shoot he doesn't think twice about passing to a teammate. And a true hard-nose defender doesn't think twice about backing away from a tackle. The ball is the focus, tunnelvision.
Similarly, you see this in nature. If you watch a documentary about a lion you see it struggle to find food. The film crew follows it for weeks, and edits the story so that it has an ark. The lion tries over and again but the prey escapes. You can see the abject failure, the sinking despair. Will it survive?
Then one day it catches prey in its teeth and doesn't let go. It drags the animal away, bones crunch. Nothing will stop its feast. It's voracious. That is appetite.
One is the game of sport, the other the game of life. In the game of life survival is the goal. But sports are a metaphor for life. In sports, in order to survive you have to win.
That prey could have gone to another lion. Or to an alligator or a pack of hyenas. It could have been their lunch instead.
So ask yourself, "who's trying to eat my lunch?" Someone is. He or she has a bigger appetite on any given day.
And "who's lunch am I trying to eat?" Because you are eating someone's whether you know it or not.
There's a balance between humility and aggression. Sometimes you demur, but sometimes you have to go all in.
30 April 2019
Ability and Focus
Most people think they are better than average drivers. They are not. That is statistically impossible. Only a minority of people can be "better than average", and only a relatively few can be "good" or "the best".
There are two key things to be a better than average driver: ability and focus. That’s it. Most people don’t have one of those two.
If you are skillful but text while driving, then you lack focus. And aren’t a good driver.
If you focus hard but don’t have the experience or motor skills, then you lack ability, and aren’t a good driver.
Choose wisely what you want to be good at. If you have the ability, then focus. Pick something and stick with it. If you don't have the ability, then also focus because most people simply don't, and eventually you will get better.
Everything's Urgent, Everyone's Optimized
You don't notice the plumbing in your home if it is working perfectly. You only notice it when the water backs up. But someone installed those pipes before the house was built. They planned and made decisions on the quality of materials, set dates, and hired workers. You didn't see any of that.
Everything's urgent, everyone's optimized. Everything's gotta come down to the wire. Most everyone is overworked and underpaid. So you don't notice the stuff that isn't urgent.
What's the one thing you could do right now that in three months would make a day pass unnoticed? What's the one easy thing you could do today that will eliminate urgency from a day in the future?
The most difficult things in the world
Must be accomplished through the easiest.
...
Therefore the Sage
Never attempts great things
And so accomplishes them.
...
Thus for the Sage
Everything is difficult,
And in the end
Nothing is difficult.
- Lao-Tzu, Tao Te Ching
19 April 2019
Blindspots
But think of it from the other driver's point of view, the person you just changed lanes and hit. You're in their windshield. They think you're an idiot. They are looking at the side and back of your head. You can't see what they see. You can't see the back of your head.
Being confident based on what's in the windshield is not enough. You have to accept the limits of what you can see.
There is a second-order to this analogy. You shouldn't drive in other people's blindspots. If you know you are in someone's blindspot, and hang out there for too long, and they hit you, that's partially on you.
If you recognize you are in someone's blindspot, give a little time and space. Or let them know you're there. Don't become apoplectic when they change lanes into you. For you also have a blindspot if you don't recognize that you are in someone else's blindspot.
11 April 2019
Different Views
Sometimes we say about other people "He doesn't get it!" OR "She doesn’t understand what it’s like to do my job." But what does it mean to get "it"?
Now we can distort this image to make it more realistic. Everyone is not standing in a perfect circle. Some are closer than others. Some have their views blocked by clusters of others. Some are far away. Everyone still has a different view but the views are not equal. It would look like this:
Some people may have a poor view, but have a lot of control over the project. Power – or control – over the project is called clout. The more clout, the greater ability to control the overall vision. Some with the most clout may be furthest away with the worst view. And some may have the best view, but the least amount of clout.
Another thing to realize is that this project is not the only one. There are many other projects and everything is tied together. What's more likely is that you are working on this one thing today, but it's part of a bigger project, a grand scheme.
Now imagine many small projects like stars in the universe. And you can take the same images from above and imagine people surrounding each one. Now we have dozens of projects. And people are surrounding them all, and have different views.
Your view of this one project may be good. But your view of some of the other projects is bad. Inversely, some people who have a very poor view of the first project that you are working on, may have a good view of others. And a few people may have a poor view of all the projects, but they have a lot of clout to affect the whole thing. That's your CEO, etc.
Given how complex this picture is, you can begin to see how complex the world actually is. Some people have a decent view of all the stars in the universe, all the projects. They may be in the back, but they see more overall than any other person. That is likely the person with the most clout.
What's the point?
When working on a project, remember you may have a good view of it, and someone else may be impeding your ability to affect it. But that person also sees many other things that you don't. She sees a different view of this project, and many other projects tied to this one.
Also keep in mind that this project might be important to you. But in the grand scheme of things it may not be that important.
22 February 2019
The Edge of Chaos
The gear – lighting, audio, backline – go onto separate trucks. "This case here, that one there. Bring that one over here. That one." Everything gets separated and packed onto new trucks. If a case were to go onto the wrong truck, it would end up a thousand miles from home.
This is a phase transition, like water into steam.
Buses, trucks, freight, sprinters, flights all moving in separate directions within a few hours of each other. It's the orchestration of a dynamic system. It's the instrument I play. It's been planned. Now it's like a TV show. Sit back and watch.
It's also Friday night so the sidewalks are teeming with weekend-warriors. The roads glow from red brake and traffic lights. Horns honking, people shouting, college bros in baseball caps and Polo shirts clumsily shoving each other.
This is the edge of chaos, a phase transition where the potential for chaos is high. The combination of planning and people doing specialized jobs is what keeps it in order. Best case scenario, everything will go exactly as planned and there will be no issues at all. Worst case, who knows.
the inherent unpredictability in the behavior of a complex natural system
The opposite of chaos of course is order, which is "the arrangement of people or things in relation to each other according to a particular sequence, pattern, or method". So, on one end of the spectrum is order and the other is chaos. Relating that spectrum to today we get:
ORDER - Everyone knows where all the cases are, what gear goes in each one, what gear gets stripped and put into another case instead, and what truck each case goes onto. Each tech has dedicated and focused local stagehands. There are no questions. Boring.
CHAOS - Unpredictable every step of the way. Everyone is confused, running around, and shouting. Gear is banging and crashing. No one knows which truck is for what gear. Lots of questions and ruckus. Overwhelming.
How much of our world is on the edge? What do we not see daily that others behind-the-scenes do? The world at any given moment has so many forces interacting that there is potential for huge differences in outcome. Everything is connected with sensitivity. On days like these, where we are transitioning, there is sensitivity to wildly different outcomes. Ideally everything goes exactly as planned. But one thing could trigger a chain-reaction.
09 February 2019
Perseverance vs Insanity
You could also say that perseverance is doing the same thing over and over again, but expecting different results. According to Merriam-Webster the definitions are similar:
- Perseverance: continued effort to do or achieve something despite difficulties
- Insanity: extreme folly or unreasonablenessFor example, you could say that someone with perseverance is being "unreasonable". And you could also say that an insane person "continues to exert effort despite difficulties".
The difference in the two words is in the process. Perseverance involves iterating on the process, while insanity involves doing the exact same thing over and over.
21 January 2019
Burrito Spot on Hollywood
Last week I was in LA for an event, and stayed at the W on Hollywood. W's are fine, but for my taste, a bit too ... rambunctious, and sort of amateur. It's the kind of place where guests wear sunglasses in the lobby, and the staff are prompt but hamstrung by policy. It's at Hollywood and Vine near the Capitol Records building, and sits on the Hollywood Walk of Fame. It's touristy around there. But the artist I was working for lived up the road, so it was a quick shot to his house. I usually stay at Le Parc, a few miles from there, which is a low-key, nondescript, roadie-haven. The W upgraded me to a suite, and I had a chauffeur in a black, tinted-out, SUV to go between the airport, hotel, and venue. So I couldn't complain. It was a pretty easy gig.
The morning after I arrived, around 9am, I walked out of the hotel and headed one block east, down Hollywood, to hit a breakfast-burrito spot I had scouted on my phone. On the short walk, I passed a young, say, looked like in his late-20's, blond-haired, blue-eyed, stringbean of a man who sat on the sidewalk with his back against the wall of a Starbucks. His clothes, a plain t-shirt and blue jeans, were tattered, and he had dirt on his face. He asked me for change. He asked everyone for change. I mumbled that I would get him on the way back, as if that meant anything to him.
I walked into the burrito shop, a greasy-spoon style spot, that smelled like refried beans and chorizo. Mexican football played overhead on a TV hung in the corner. It was perfect. The restaurant was narrow and long, and was lined with high counter-tops and aluminum stools. There were two people inside, a short Spanish-speaking line-cook behind the counter, and a large beastly-looking fellow who sat toward the back, on a stool, elbows on the counter, huddled over a cup of styrofoam-cup coffee. He was wrapped in a woven Mexican-style falsa blanket. It was January, so it was chilly by LA standards. His brown, shoulder-length hair was matted, and his beard was wild. He stared straightforward disconnectedly. It looked like he had been on the street for a while.
The homeless situation in LA is jarring. The same goes for all the cities up the West Coast: San Diego, LA, San Fran, Portland, Seattle, Vancouver. Anecdotally, as someone who has been to every major city in the U.S. and Canada more than several times in recent years, I can say that it's worse in those cities than anywhere else. And in LA, it feels particularly shocking juxtaposed against the glamour of Television and Film – the twinkle of in-vogue fashion, and luxurious wealth. Tent-cities under over-passes, and on sidewalks, are a ubiquitous, harsh and hushed reality against the delusion of optimistic starry-eyed aspirations. Every time I arrive in LA, I'm appalled. But after a day or two, I grow numb to it. Just like everyone else.
Inside the burrito spot, I stood looking up at the menu posted on the wall behind the cook, who waited for my order. While I stood and scanned, the fellow wrapped in the blanket asked if I could buy him a burrito. I was hungover, and edgy. Indifferently without looking at him, I said something along the lines of, "Sorry I can't". He then, probably picking up on my annoyance and callousness, mumbled something under his breath. I had incited agitation in him, which then agitated me. Indirectly, and under my breath, but audible, I uttered something along the lines of "I can't walk one block without getting harassed". (I realize that working in Manhattan for half a dozen years, half a dozen years ago, caused me to develop a certain Pavlovian response to strangers in the street. I learned to detach and push back when necessary.) He, now in a raised voice, and snarky tone said, "Oh I'm sorry a lot of people are out here SUFFERING". He then turned, and faced forward indignantly, with both hands wrapped around his coffee.
I felt bad. Actually, I felt like a fucking asshole. What I said was completely tone-deaf. Who was I to this guy? Some tourist staying in a fucking suite, getting chauffeured around in a black SUV. I, of course, didn't see myself that way. I'm a regular working-stiff trying to make it in the world. I struggle to pay bills just like everyone else. It's all relative. What – I can't buy a hungry person a $6 burrito?
Something struck me.
I stood up, moved two counter-seats closer, leaned over, looked him in the eyes, and said, "What's going on? What's wrong?" He stuttered, "I'm not sure, but I'm suffering and in pain. I hear voices. I have arguments with God. I love God, but we have arguments." I replied, "I can't understand your pain, but I'm sorry you are suffering". I looked at his skin. It was caked with dirt. There was black grime under his fingernails. I said, "I'm sorry, let me get you a burrito". He stammered and looked hurriedly at the board overhead, as if he wanted to order before I changed my mind. He ordered a "jumbo" and asked for double meat. The line-cook asked if it was ok. I said yes. He ordered another cup of coffee. The line-cook asked if it was ok. I said yes. I paid and grabbed mine to-go. I went back to him, put my hand on his back, and said "I can't understand your pain, but I'm sorry you are suffering. Hang in there". He nodded. I left.
If I had to guess, I would think that future generations will probably judge us pretty harshly for the way we currently handle the "homeless situation" or whatever you want to call it. That's not to say I have answers. I don't. Some think society should provide "basic income", and some think "we shouldn't give handouts". I don't have experience working in shelters or on the streets, but I do know that many of "those people" have severe mental illness, are Vets, are women and children trying to flee abuse, or are people with compulsive addiction trying to self-medicate. They are shunned by society, and have no family or safety net. Many have psychological conditions, which are exasperated via a negative feedback loop because they live on the street.
Buying a burrito didn't solve anything or make me a good person. I was just struck by something. Maybe it annoyed the line-cook because now the fellow would return, hoping for a second round of benevolence.
Homelessness is an ocean of a problem. It's in every city. People want to help but everyone is a working stiff. Maybe I should give more, and not be so self-involved and overly-optimized. The LEAST I can do is treat people like people. If someone talks to me, I can talk back and look him in the eyes. I can say "yes" or "no" or "sorry". That's the least I can do. Civilizations are built on tiny interactions. They don't go unnoticed.
I walked back to the hotel and clinked my change into the stringbean's cup who was leaning against Starbucks, 79 cents. He said thanks.


